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New Zealand Beekeeping
2022 Colony Loss Survey
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<blockquote data-quote="tristan" data-source="post: 12306" data-attributes="member: 30"><p>right lets kick this off then.</p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/assets/Discover-Our-Research/Environment/Sustainable-society-policy/NZ-Colony-Loss/2022-survey/CLSS-results-2022_10__ScaleWidthWzEwMjRd.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p><img src="https://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/assets/Discover-Our-Research/Environment/Sustainable-society-policy/NZ-Colony-Loss/2022-survey/collos6__ScaleWidthWzEwMjRd.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p></p><p>the graph here is very unusual to me, it should never be such a straight line. beginners have a hard time seeing varroa related problems, so the graph should be a lot closer to 100% and should fall quite quickly to 0%. any 5 year + beek should be able to spot pms/dfw a mile away. its a case of you know or you don't.</p><p>so it should be closer to flat from 5 year to 60 year.</p><p>also the 95% confidence spread should be the other way around.</p><p></p><p>i suspect newer beeks are over confident in their answer and older beeks are hedging their bets and under reporting.</p><p></p><p>also there is survivor bias to take into account. especially 0-5 year. those who did not see varroa/dwv had all their hives die out and are no longer beekeepers hence not part of the survey. we know at least 50% of new beeks don't survive the first year or two.</p><p></p><p>unfortunately i can't remember what the original question was. i suspect the question is being interpreted a bit different.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="tristan, post: 12306, member: 30"] right lets kick this off then. [IMG]https://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/assets/Discover-Our-Research/Environment/Sustainable-society-policy/NZ-Colony-Loss/2022-survey/CLSS-results-2022_10__ScaleWidthWzEwMjRd.png[/IMG] [IMG]https://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/assets/Discover-Our-Research/Environment/Sustainable-society-policy/NZ-Colony-Loss/2022-survey/collos6__ScaleWidthWzEwMjRd.png[/IMG] the graph here is very unusual to me, it should never be such a straight line. beginners have a hard time seeing varroa related problems, so the graph should be a lot closer to 100% and should fall quite quickly to 0%. any 5 year + beek should be able to spot pms/dfw a mile away. its a case of you know or you don't. so it should be closer to flat from 5 year to 60 year. also the 95% confidence spread should be the other way around. i suspect newer beeks are over confident in their answer and older beeks are hedging their bets and under reporting. also there is survivor bias to take into account. especially 0-5 year. those who did not see varroa/dwv had all their hives die out and are no longer beekeepers hence not part of the survey. we know at least 50% of new beeks don't survive the first year or two. unfortunately i can't remember what the original question was. i suspect the question is being interpreted a bit different. [/QUOTE]
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